The end?

  

Only time (hours? days? weeks? months? hopefully years!) will tell…
Apparently, one Palestinian has already been killed. Maybe it was just a matter of hours…

Meanwhile, there go several links which may help us building a more comprehensive analysis (Plus the ones I posted before the ceasefire)
NYT‘s main article (and its Editorial)
How Hamas won the war (FP) also here (Haaretz) Or not? (Al Ayyam) also here (Foreign Affairs)
Half victory, half defeat (Al Ayyam)
Israel’s gamble (Foreign Affairs)
More on the winners and losers of the conflict (Le Monde – in French)
The day after (Haaretz)
Bibi’s wrong calculations (L’Orient Le Jour – in French)
Reaction in Gaza (The Independent)
The text (The Jerusalem Post)
Abbas seems to be happy (YourMiddleEast)
Live in war, die in war (YourMiddleEast)
Was the conflict a test towards a future war with Iran? (NYT) Or not? (Al Monitor) Or yes? (Al Monitor again) Apparently, the Islamic Republic backs the deal
Unity in Palestine? (NYT)
Great comprehensive analysis (Estudios de Politica Exterior – in Spanish)
Netanyahu and Clausewitz: witty comparison (Al Monitor)
What has changed in Gaza? (eldiario.es – in Spanish)
Arabs just won’t learn” (Haaretz – After reading the title, I didn’t have the nerve to go on, maybe you can)
The conflict’s booty (L’Orient Le Jour – in French)

Conclusions

Palestinian side

  • The truce saw a new unity among rival factions being born, as well as a “renewed commitment to the tactic of resistance”.
  • Hamas’ position has been emboldened, mainly thanks to the from visits paid by neighbouring leaders. Some see the organization as the most legitimate interlocutor or, at least, as the only one able to represent Gaza.
  • However, some consider that, as a result, the peace process is now dead, notably because Mahmoud Abbas’ stance has been incredibly weakened. Moreover, what will happen with the latter’s proposal before the UN?
  • However, Hamas and Fatah have agreed to meet in Cairo for another round of unity talks (is Palestinian reconciliation finally in the offing?).
  • Gaza’s grievances, particularly concerning the siege the Strip has been under, will allegedly be addressed in future talks.


Israeli side

  • National elections are only eight weeks away, and taking into account 86% of the population was in favor of attacking Gaza, Nettanyahu’s Government has seemed to imcredibly please them. Thus, the Prime Minister is still the front-runner: as the NYT says, “stopping short of a ground invasion, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emerged from the crisis looking like a moderate, responsible leader, not a trigger-happy adventurer”.
  • The country has restored peace after months of intensifying rocket fire and weapon’s arsenals in Gaza have been diminished.
  • Israel’s Iron Dome anti-missile system has proved its worth and many of Hamas’s missiles have been destroyed.
  • Let’s not forget the rockets fired from Gaza reached the central Israeli cities – Tel Aviv and Jerusalem – and Israelis are perfectly aware they can be under threat anytime. Deterrence is now mutual.

Region and rest of the International Community

  • Egypt (together with Turkey and Qatar, although the latter have had a lesser role than they were expecting) has showed it is a key player in both the Arab World and the world itself (something Morsi was apparently already planning to).
  • President Morsi’s stance has also been incredibly strengthened in Egypt itself (at least until he anointed himself as the new Pharaoh) as he adopted a much blunter position towards Israel,something the population had been asking for years.
  • Egypt is nowadays something close to Hamas’ main ally, thus weakening the group links with Iran (even more than when the group broke up with Syria).
  • I must add Egypt has not 100% become a supporter of the Palestinian cause, but is still a mediator between both countries. Let’s not forget the Rafah border crossing remains closed and the Camp David Accords in force.
  • The Arab League has once again shown incapable of delivering. Indeed, Qatar’s foreign minister publicly said that he is a sheep, among other sheep, and that Arab ewes don’t have the ability to resist the Israeli goat.
  • The U.S., as Obama showed sending Clinton from Asia to Cairo, seem interested again in the peace process.
  • I’m sorry to say that, but… Even though it is facing vital problems, what has the EU been doing? Isn’t it part of the “Quartet”?
  • And, last but not least, it is beyond doubt that, despite the accusations international media has been receiving over the week, an important shift of Western opinion is taking place. Israel can no longer portray itself as the helpless little country constantly being attacked by its Arab neighbours. Israel is an occupying power, who systematically violates basic human rights and ignores all kinds of international condemnations. The blatant military and economic assymmetry between both sides only stresses the facts, and increasingly diminishes Israel’s clout.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s